The risk of AI is not coming from where you think. 

This is AI, not Edward Hopper. It is the artist AI courtesy of Dall-E.

Image 1@2x

DEC 11, 2022

SHARE

I have AI on my list of long-term, material risk. Along with climate, demographics, and deglobalization.

I’m not talking about AI in auto plants; robots welding car frames and or vacuuming floors. Rather, I’m talking about AI applications that are self-learning. The robots in the auto plant don’t wander around absorbing everything going inside the factory and learning from their errors, and the errors of the humans around them.

To see why AI is a material risk, to see AI’s emerging potential, don’t look at what it does for the routine. We all get that. Instead, look at what it does in the creative sphere.

The testbed for that is OpenAI.com, whose mission “is to ensure that artificial general intelligence benefits all of humanity.” When your stated mission includes benefitting all of humanity, you know things could go off the rails if they are not treated just so.

Two of its products that put creative power into computers are Dall-E and ChatGPT. The first allows you to create original art with a prompt. The second allows you to write anything from articles to poems with a prompt.

On the first, I used Dall-E for the illustration of a recent LinkedIn post. I needed a person picking berries while a lion was watching form behind a rock. I couldn’t find anything that worked by searching images on the web. So I gave Dall-E that as a prompt, and you can see the result here.

Nothing great, but I picked the first thing that came out.

Log into Dall-E  and try your hand. I have done paintings in the style of  various artists, and the results are like original works they might have done. Here is one, based on my prompt “Paint store fronts in the style of Edward Hopper”.

DALL·E 2022-12-10 17.28.20

To test ChatGPT, I went for the creative jugular, and tried my hand — well, its hand — at poetry. My first prompt was “do a haiku on leaves falling on a pond in early winter”. It came back with this. Keep in mind that this is an original composition:

Leaves fall on a still pond
Early winter’s quiet embrace
Nature’s gentle hush.

Then I asked it to do “a sonnet of two friends meeting during a cold winter day after fearing the other had died”. Here are the last two stanzas of the result. Again, this is an original composition:

We spoke of all the things we’d missed,
Of all the joys and sorrows we’d endured.
And though the winter’s grip was fierce and cold,
Our friendship, like a fire, was reassured.

So let the snow fall and the winds howl,
For we have found a treasure in our souls.
Two friends reunited, hearts made whole,
A bond that even death cannot extol.

I asked it to write things in the style of Hemingway and of Faulkner. By my assessment, it did as well as an educated person for both, maybe not quite as turgid as it could have been for Hemingway.

For something more practical I asked it to do an email letting someone go, first “gently” and then “coldly”.

Here’s the gentle one:

Dear [Employee],
I am writing to inform you that, due to the recent economic downturn, the company has been forced to make some difficult decisions regarding staffing. After careful consideration, we have made the decision to let you go.
I know that this news may come as a shock, and I want to assure you that this decision was not made lightly. The company has been greatly impacted by the downturn, and we have had to make some difficult choices in order to remain financially stable.
Please know that we are truly grateful for the hard work and dedication you have shown during your time with the company. This decision is not a reflection of your performance, and we wish you all the best in your future endeavors.
Sincerely,
[Your Name]

And the cold one:

Dear [Employee],
Due to the recent economic downturn, the company has been forced to make some difficult decisions regarding staffing. After careful consideration, we have determined that your position is no longer necessary and you are being let go effective immediately.
Please note that this decision is final and not open for discussion. You will be compensated for the remaining time on your contract, but we will not be providing any additional severance pay.
We wish you the best of luck in finding a new position.
Sincerely,
[Your Name]

I don’t think I could not have done a better job myself. And however well it did, it will do all the better as it learns and refines its thought process, or whatever you call it.

Access a better way to understand and work with risk, powered by MSCI’s factor model.

Access a better way to understand and work with risk, powered by MSCI’s factor model.

Rick Bookstaber

CO-FOUNDER AND HEAD OF RISK

Rick Bookstaber has held chief risk officer roles at major institutions, most recently the pension and endowment of the University of California. He holds a Ph.D. from MIT.

Recommended Articles

fabric asset 11

DEC 8, 2022

Material Risks for Individuals

Read More

cubes 428 email

DEC 2, 2022

Treasury Illiquidity

Read More

fabric asset 17

SEP 27, 2022

How Much Farther We Have To Go

Read More

Group 41@2x

© 2022 Fabric Risk